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Comisia Europeană estimează că România va obține una dintre cele mai puternice recolte de grâu moale din ultimii ani. Potrivit evaluării din luna mai, producția din 2026 va ajunge la 11,06 milioane tone, rămânând sub nivelul record din 2025, dar fiind totuși cu peste 14% peste media ultimilor cinci ani. Suprafața cultivată cu grâu este estimată la 2,24 milioane hectare, aproape fără modificări față de anul precedent, în timp ce randamentul mediu este prognozat la aproximativ 4,94 t/ha.
La porumb, Comisia Europeană prognozează o producție de 7,77 milioane tone, ușor peste nivelul din 2025, dar încă sub media pe termen lung. Acest lucru se datorează în principal suprafețelor mai reduse, estimate în 2026 la 1,97 milioane hectare, comparativ cu peste 2,24 milioane hectare media ultimilor cinci ani. Cu toate acestea, randamentele la porumb sunt așteptate să se îmbunătățească până la aproximativ 3,94 t/ha.
O îmbunătățire semnificativă este așteptată și la orz. Comisia Europeană estimează o producție de 2,95 milioane tone, cu peste 44% peste media ultimilor cinci ani. Principalul factor îl reprezintă atât suprafața ridicată de 626 mii hectare, cât și randamentul mediu estimat la aproximativ 4,71 t/ha. O tendință similară este observată și la triticale, unde producția este estimată la 289 mii tone.
La culturile oleaginoase, accentul cade pe rapiță. Comisia Europeană estimează o recoltă de 2,61 milioane tone, ceea ce ar reprezenta cel mai ridicat nivel din ultimii ani și cu peste 78% peste media ultimilor cinci ani. Suprafețele cultivate cu rapiță ajung la 822 mii hectare, o creștere puternică față de anii anteriori, iar randamentul mediu estimat rămâne stabil la aproximativ 3,18 t/ha.
La floarea-soarelui, Comisia estimează o recoltă relativ stabilă de 2,08 milioane tone, aproape de nivelul din 2025. Suprafețele rămân ridicate — aproximativ 1,22 milioane hectare, însă randamentul estimat de 1,71 t/ha continuă să rămână sub media ultimilor cinci ani.
Producția totală de cereale din România în 2026 este estimată la 22,34 milioane tone, cu peste 5% peste media ultimilor cinci ani. La culturile oleaginoase, producția este așteptată să ajungă la aproape 5 milioane tone, principalul motor al creșterii fiind redresarea puternică a rapiței.
Cât de realiste se vor dovedi aceste estimări urmează să se vadă în cadrul AgriPortal Crop Tour 2026, care va avea loc între 8 și 12 iunie. Pe parcursul a cinci zile, echipa AgroPortal va evalua culturile de toamnă din regiunile-cheie ale României și Bulgariei, iar pe baza observațiilor directe din teren va fi elaborată prima prognoză independentă pentru producția noului sezon.
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| Petrol nerafinat | 97.77 $/baril | *.** |
| EUR / USD | 1.1234 | *.** |
| USD / RON | 4.5480 | *.** |
| EUR / RON | 5.25 | *.** |
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| Floarea-soarelui - 44-9-2 | ***.** RON/t | *.** |
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| Grâu de panificație 12.5% FOB Rusia | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Grâu de panificație 12.5% FOB Ucraina | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Grâu de panificație 12.5% FOB România | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Grâu de panificație 12.5% FOB Polonia | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Grâu de panificație FOB Rouen Franța | ***.** €/t | *.** |
| Grâu de panificație 12% FOB Germania | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Grâu de panificație 12.5% FOB Argentina | ***.** $/t | *.** |
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| Șrot de floarea-soarelui EXW Bulgaria | ***.** €/t | *.** |
| Ulei brut de floarea-soarelui EXW Bulgaria | ***.** €/t | *.** |
| Ulei brut de floarea-soarelui FOB Rotterdam | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Ulei brut de floarea-soarelui FOB Ucraina | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Ulei brut de floarea-soarelui FOB Rusia | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Ulei brut de floarea-soarelui CIF India | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Ulei brut de floarea-soarelui FOB Argentina | ***.** $/t | *.** |
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| Orez Paddy EXW Italia | ***.** €/t | *.** |
| Orez alb cu bob lung FOB India | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Năut Bengal Gram EXW India | ***.** $/t | *.** |
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| Orez Mezza Grana EXW Italia | ***.** €/t | *.** |
| Orez alb BKN FOB Thailanda | ***.** $/t | *.** |
| Orez alb cu bob lung FOB India | ***.** $/t | *.** |
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